@make[report]
@majorheading[Developments in Computing Technology]
The following section indicates the assumptions made by the University in
drawing up this document.  It is of course subject to the normal hazards
of forcasting changes in technology.
@subheading[a) Processor & Storage]
It is expected that chip advances will reduce the cost of processing power
and main store over the period.  Work stations are expected to get much
cheaper; entry level micros will stay about current prices but have
improvements in cpu speed and storage.  The distinction between personal
micro and work stations will disappear.

Mainframe machines will also become cheaper under threat from both the
100 Mip personal machine and highly parallel machines like the computing
surface.  Main frames will have vector processors almost as a matter of
course although proper exploration of these will involve the use of very
complex (and expensive) compilers.
@subheading[b) Backing Store]
Rotating Discs and industry standard magnetic tapes seem likely to
dominate backing storage for some years to come.  Packing densities will
increase providing for some reductions in cost per megabyte stored.  As
main storage expands disc storage will be seen more as file storage rather
than paging capacity and larger capacities will be more important than fast
access.  The write once laser disc is now a viable storage medium although
seek times and transfer rates are disappointing - nevertheless it might
become the prime method of archive storage for valuable but seldom accessed
data.  The rewritable optical disc might appear during the period but
performance and cost are not yet known.  The CD Rom will become a method of
volume distribution of read only data - and may become important for
library and database work.

Cassette tapes based on video recorder technology are an interesting
possibility since they will combine large capacity and automatic loading.
The transfer rate may be rather slow but they could enable a central
operator to back up remote file stores - a service often requested by
university departments.
@subheading[c) Communications]
Rapid technological developments will lead to considerable increases in
transmission speed but there is little likelyhood of a fall in prices.
The expanding demand, the labour intensive nature of wiring operations and the cosy
monopilies of the PTTs all mitigate against a fall in costs.  Universities
might be able to use faster communications to reduce staff costs - but must
otherwise resign themselves to paying more for this essential service.
@subheading[d) Likely Effects of change on Industry]
@paragraph[Large Multinationals]
Large old established companies who have flourished on the basis of large
orders for big machines will be seriously squeezed by competition from new
agressive work station manufacturers.  They will try to maintain their cash flow
by providing expensive total solutions to firms' computing needs - bundles
of workstation, mainframes and networking software.  They will also raise charges
for software and software maintenance substantially.  This will be enforced
by frequent new releases (to be purchased) with built in obsolescence.
Products will not interwork with old versions of operation systems and other
basics due to communications evolution.  Each improved product will have a
substantial price rise.
@paragraph[Small Companies]
There will continue to be intense competition in the PC and work station
area - only the fittest will survive.  Purchasers will multi- source large
orders to decrease their vulnerability in the case of a supplier failing.

Software companies are likely to prosper - the rising cost of manufacturers software
will open opportunities and raise profit margins.  As computer users perceive
the disadvantages of being a capture consumer the sales of manufacturer
independent packages will grow even if they are deficient in quality
(cf UNIX).  Networking specialists are also likely to prosper in the confused 
atmosphere that will persist until software standards are universal.
@subheading[e) Effect of changes on UK Academic Community]
It is clear that a lot more money is going to be spend acquiring and
maintaining software in the next decade; it is not entirely clear where this
money will come from.  The Computer Board limits the amount of recurrent
money that is made available for hardware and software support.  It seems
likely that most of this money will have to come onto the Universities'
deminishing UGC grants.  It is ironic that the Computer Board has succeeded
in forcing universities off "private" operating systems just as the prime
advantage of "free" system software and maintenance vanishes for ever.
Universities that still have access to a "private" system may well wish to
hold on to it until the software funding issue clarifies.

There are many opportunities for universities to market software profitably.
This has been regarded as rather infra-dig but protonged culs in funding
are changing attitudes fast.

Some further joint ventures - analogous to the Joint Network Team - may
prove desirable.  A joint software team might be able to purchase software
on a country wide basis and provide substantial economies.  It is even
possible to envisage a joint operating system team to produce a hardware
independent operating system for all universities!

@flushright[Peter Stephens
12th February, 1988.]